We model the club, not just the player.
Every recruitment tool on the market scores the player. None of them model the environment he’s walking into. FitSim models both — and tells you how confident it is in the answer.
The soil, not the seed
A player’s next move is almost always judged on what he did somewhere else.
But performance isn’t a fixed property of a player. It’s what happens when a particular player meets a particular environment — the coach’s demands, the dressing room, how the club recruits, what the pressure outside the ground feels like, how people get treated when results go badly.
Change the environment and you change the player.
That’s why around half of significant transfers fail.
Dr Ian Graham, former Director of Research at Liverpool FC, How to Win the Premier League (2024).
A transfer is counted as a failure where the incoming player starts fewer than half of his new club’s league games in the two seasons after signing. Premier League scope only.
It’s rarely that the player wasn’t good enough
When Graham set out why transfers fail, most of the reasons had nothing to do with misjudging the player’s ability:
One reason on the list is “he wasn’t as good as we thought.” The rest are all about the environment he landed in.
Every recruitment tool on the market is built to solve the one. FitSim is built to model the rest.
Both sides of the decision
How it works
What FitSim won’t tell you
Plenty of systems will sell you certainty about a transfer. Certainty isn’t available. A defensible decision is.
Example output. Synthetic data — not a client result.
“The data exists. The talent exists. What’s been missing is the intelligence to connect them — to know not just who a player is, but who they become inside your environment.”